Dusty Baker “should be a part of the dialog round MLB’s best-ever managers,” concluded Neil Paine from FiveThirtyEight after learning essentially the most overachieving managers, and “shouldn’t want a hoop to validate his profession.” Agreed. Let’s go additional.
Baker can be MLB’s best-ever bullpen supervisor — a case this text will make with many years of receipts.
Let’s begin right here: 0.83. That’s the Mariano Riverian ERA of the whole Astros bullpen this postseason.
Final yr’s World Sequence bullpen run was, arguably, simply as spectacular given how badly the Astros’ starters fell aside (6.36 ERA; 7.20 ERA within the Fall Basic; solely 3.2 innings per begin). “I like the place they ended up,” wrote Fangraphs’ Ben Clemons.
Within the common season, the Astros’ bullpen ranked No. 1 in ERA, No. 1 in Subject Impartial Pitching (FIP), and thrived in practically each superior metric. Was this predictable? Apparently not. In preseason predictions, they did not crack “The Prime 10 Greatest Bullpens” by MLB or by Fangraphs.
However don’t be stunned. Baker has been right here earlier than.
Not too unhealthy. Nevertheless it’s arduous accountable them contemplating the next (see chart):
Final yr, Rafael Montero posted a 7.27 ERA with the Seattle Mariners, received booed off the sector by their followers, and was designated for project. In 2022, Montero’s ERA plummeted to 2.37, and pitched in 10 of 13 Astros postseason video games together with all three vs. the M’s, serving to to get rid of his former workforce.
Earlier than the Astros, Ryne Stanek was final seen blowing saves whereas posting a 6.03 ERA for the Miami Marlins earlier than they gave up on him. In 2022, Stanek set an Astros all-time membership file with an absurd 1.15 ERA. This isn’t new for Baker.
Again in 1999, Baker helped save Felix Rodriguez’s profession after he posted a 6.14 ERA with the Diamondbacks — the third workforce to surrender him by age 26. In 2001, Felix would publish a 1.68 ERA.
From the Giants to the Astros, turning one other workforce’s trash into treasure is what Dusty Baker does greatest. And it’s not simply well-traveled vets. The Astros’ younger Bryan Abreu broke out in 2022 with a 1.94 ERA, echoing a younger Aroldis Chapman in 2012 (1.51).
And but, for those who reviewed the final 30 days or 30 years of baseball literature on Baker’s bullpens, Dusty is “The Invisible Supervisor.” He has replicated bullpen magic throughout groups and many years, however it has gone unnoticed (Giants), misevaluated (the Sabermetrics group); unappreciated (Astros media); downright disrespected (Reds media and Astros Twitter), or one hundred pc credited to the closest white males in his proximity (Reds and Astros).
Baker could also be revered throughout baseball, however his managerial excellence is sort of universally credited to his interpersonal genius — his mastery of individuals, personalities, cultures, languages, potential to construct clubhouse chemistry, and a successful tradition mirrored in these 88 quotes from former admiring gamers.
Whereas all true, Dusty’s tactical genius has gone unsung and undocumented. And the proof is within the bullpen.
I. “MIRACLE WORKER”: The Most Wonderful Managerial Bullpen Chart You Have By no means Seen
Manny Parra had a profession ERA of 5.12 however put up a 3.33 ERA in 2013 his first season with Baker’s Reds. Credit score was extensively assigned to Reds pitching coach Bryan Worth, who would exchange Baker as supervisor after a 90-win season.
“Manny Parra immediately turned an efficient reliever at age 30 beneath Bryan Worth’s tutelage. Worth is evidently a miracle employee,” wrote an ESPN reporter earlier than Parra reverted again to his earlier type in 2014 with Worth as supervisor.
Parra is a part of an astounding checklist of 24 separate miracle pitchers who lowered their ERA by one to 3 full runs beneath Baker, baseball’s Managerial Moses minus the Bible entries. Take an extended look and let this checklist soak in:
Pricey Dusty’s Saber-Critics: In the event you can present an identical bullpen checklist for different managers, please reveal your work. No more flawed formulation centering on a supervisor’s course of, however concrete before-and-after outcomes that reveal success.
Baker’s course of has labored wonders. Of the pitchers on this checklist:
- 83 % arrived with a 4.00 ERA or greater of their profession.
- 43 % had at the very least 5.00 ERA or greater of their profession.
- 26 % had an ERA of 6.00 or greater of their earlier season.
Dusty wasn’t working with Joe Torre’s Yankee bullpens.
After an early-career studying curve, Baker’s best achievement would possibly nonetheless be constructing the 1998-2002 Giants bullpen (No. 2 ERA and No. 1 FIP) from a group of cast-offs. The Cubs had been his worst, however he nonetheless improved an atrocious bullpen to a median one (No. 13 and No. 17). However decreasing pitchers’ ERAs from 5.00 to 4.00 nonetheless leaves a foul bullpen. Probably the most unappreciated work to today is the 2008-2013 Reds, a cautionary story for Baker’s Astros critics.
The checklist of 24 could be longer however excluded relievers who didn’t 1) pitch at the very least 40 innings; 2) additionally enhance their FIP (4 excluded); and three) enhance their ERA by at the very least 1 FULL run — a criterion that excluded gamers with distinctive all-star seasons by Rod Beck; Francisco Cordero; Edison Volquez; Aroldis Chapman; and Ryan Pressly. Like Pressly, whereas a few gamers on this checklist started bettering previous to becoming a member of Baker (notably Hawkins, Marshall), they’re nonetheless included since Baker maintained that normal not like so many managers after him. Which ends up in essentially the most revealing stat:
- 75 OF THE PITCHERS ON THE LIST HAD THEIR ERA RISE BACK 1 TO 4 RUNS AFTER DUSTY BAKER!
Merely put. Baker’s bullpen brilliance is generally tactical.
It’s particularly Dusty’s superior utilization of them — how, when, the place, how typically, and the way lengthy he makes use of or rests them. Age doesn’t matter both. Six pitchers on the checklist joined Dusty between the ages of 33 and 39, and the Reds’ Arthur Rhodes made his first All-Star Recreation at age 40.
Whereas FIP was additionally reviewed (70 % improved by 1-2 runs; 96 % by +.5 runs), ERA, what truly occurred, is most well-liked. There isn’t any such factor as “Subject Impartial Pitching” (or any variation) with any Baker workforce. Dusty intentionally prioritizes protection as if he had been Gregg Popovich, and his pitchers’ ERAs obtain additional advantage from it (see Half IV).
II. “MIRACLE WORKER II”: Contained in the Reds bullpen collapse after Dusty
In 2008, Baker inherited the No. 27-ranked Reds bullpen. By 2009, it was ranked fourth. By 2012 it was first. The Reds’ defensive rank additionally jumped from No. 24 to No. 2 by 2009 (Fangraphs). Regardless of this success, Baker nonetheless had his bullpen administration routinely disparaged, with credit score typically going to Worth, employed as pitching coach in 2010. Baker’s firing in 2013 was extensively supported by Reds media. Most Reds followers agreed with the choice, and the very worst of them despatched Dusty a “rash” of “actually ugly” racist hate mail after dropping a 1-game playoff.
Robust crowd.
The Reds employed Worth to take the Reds “deep into the postseason”. Worth was (incorrectly) perceived as extra amenable to Sabermetrics, and hailed as “the anti-Dusty,” who “turned the Reds pitching round.” Worth advised reporters his No. 1 managerial distinction could be altering Baker’s bullpen technique. Right here’s what occurred:
Solely Chapman continued his progress. The others had been all out of the league by 2018. The Reds bullpen collapse was underscored by an enormous disparity in 1-run sport data, a tactical staple of Baker’s profession (+64 extra 1-run wins than losses), and in the course of the Astros 2022 season (27-16) and playoffs (5-1).
In 2022, echoes of Baker’s Reds critics might be heard on Astros Twitter who assign one hundred pc of the workforce’s success to the Astros group and coaches, a sentiment so prevalent that even ESPN 97.5 Houston radio promoted the concept “Baker needs to be executed — EVEN if the Astros win the World Sequence.”
Just like the Reds, Baker is only a fortunate bystander. What they received’t inform you is Baker’s bullpen historical past — and even their very own.
Below earlier supervisor A.J. Hinch, the Astros’ postseason bullpens produced a 5.03 ERA over 50 video games, and arguably price them two titles (2015 epic collapse and 2019 World Sequence), and practically their 2017 title, too (5.40 ERA). Hinch managed old-school-style playoff runs dominated by stellar veteran aces pitching deep into video games (3.40 ERA).
Since 2020, Baker has lower Hinch’s postseason bullpen ERA in half. Baker’s Astros bullpen/starter ERA cut up of two.47/4.53 is constant together with his whole postseason profession (2.73/4.51). Opposite to anecdotal reminiscence, Baker’s playoff bullpens (minus the Cubs), have excelled, together with his Reds (1.77), and Giants (3.13). His starters haven’t.
Ought to Astros coaches and the group share credit score? In fact. Baker and the Astros are baseball’s Lennon-McCartney, however Astros Twitter thinks Dusty is Ringo. The purpose is to not quibble over credit score, however understand this:
No supervisor and group have ever been extra completely fitted to one another. Not as a result of the well-respected Baker revived the Astros out of a dishonest scandal, however for tactical causes alone. Baker, a protege of the legendary Invoice Walsh, isn’t a genius simply because he extremely values baseball analytics just like the Astros, however as a result of no supervisor is aware of higher when to deviate from them.
However how has Baker executed it?
III. BEHIND BAKER’S BRILLIANCE: Fewer walks, fewer dwelling runs, higher fielding
There are most likely 50 nuanced causes Baker’s bullpens excel, however three stand out. Practically all of Baker’s pitchers on the above checklist considerably diminished their walks or their dwelling runs, or each. And practically 90 % had been additionally aided by Dusty’s defenses.
What was the principle cause Manny Parra improved? He diminished his walks per 9 (BB/9) to 2.9 from 5.4 the earlier yr. And this:
Not too unhealthy. The Astros’ Hector Neris has additionally been added to this checklist. And as soon as once more:
- EVERY PITCHER ON THIS LIST RETURNED TO A HIGHER CAREER BB9 AFTER PLAYING FOR DUSTY!
It’s tactical. It’s Dusty.
Dusty is aware of when to make use of them, when to not, and when to provide a fast hook if their management is off. Baker focuses on reforming wild flamethrowers different groups couldn’t. “The entire thing about pitching is management, management, management,” says Baker. “Everyone talks about velocity on a regular basis, however the velocity with out command and management isn’t any good.”
If that is what Dusty has executed with journeymen, isn’t this additionally the man you need working with a younger Abreu or Chapman, or younger starters like Framber Valdez, and Cristian Javier — all who considerably lower down their walks rising beneath him?
Baker’s 2002 World Sequence Giants bullpen was constructed off three pitchers who diminished their profession BB/9 by 1.2 to 1.7 walks per sport. And one other, Tim Worrell, who slashed his dwelling run charge by 60 %. Some others:
Once more, the gamers listed returned to outdated HR/9 charges after Baker. Once more, it’s tactical. Dusty chooses pitchers, and prioritizes matchups particularly to assist maintain the ball within the park. That’s the way you win an epic 18-inning scoreless 1-0 playoff sport.
The 2022 Astros, 2012 Reds, and 2002 Giants bullpens all ranked No. 2 in HR/9. Neris, Montero, Stanek, and Abreu all slashed their HR/9 charges to 0.3 or 0.4 this yr. Batters simply don’t hit the ball as arduous towards Baker bullpens. Since Exhausting Hit Fee was tracked in 2015, Dusty’s Astros and Nationals have each ranked within the high 5 in lowest HH%.
Dusty’s protection and selection of catchers can be essential.
Baker persistently favors enjoying superior defensive gamers over higher hitters, and light-hitting catchers in the event that they prioritize protection, are masterful at dealing with pitchers, and function his “discipline normal” just like the Astros’ Martin Maldonado (or Ryan Hanigan on the Reds). These selections drive his offense-first critics loopy, however save runs, cut back ERAs, and win video games.
“It’s arduous to play on my workforce for those who can’t catch,” mentioned Baker in 2016. “My groups have been close to the highest in protection yearly. You possibly can look it up.”
OK, let’s try this. Based on Fangraphs, Baker’s Astros (2020-22) and Reds (2008-13) had the No. 2-ranked defenses; the Cubs at No. 7; and the Giants at No. 4 in 2002, the primary yr superior defensive metrics had been recorded (UZR).
That’s 4 groups with high defenses. Dusty did that. “I can enhance your protection by hitting you 1,000 groundballs or 100 fly balls,” added Baker. “I imagine you will get higher at protection for those who’re keen to place within the work.”
Sadly, a lot of in the present day’s Sabermetrics group is unwilling to place within the work on Dusty.
IV.“THE INVISIBLE MANAGER”: The issue with Baker’s saber-critics
Dusty has been typically derided in sure Sabermetrics circles lending false objectivity to writers, followers, and bigots who mock him. Lots of Dusty’s critics function in good religion, however use flawed formulation; others in unhealthy religion use anecdotal analytics. And others merely can’t settle for {that a} Black man is smarter than them. Let’s pause.
Researching this text was infuriating. For 30 years, behind each particular person bullpen success was some new tweak, pitch, supply, pitching coach, assistant coach, group, analytics division — any cause to lean on besides the identical Black man in every dugout. Every time, white scribes would credit score different white males. When a bullpen determination went unsuitable, effectively, then that was “on Dusty” with meticulous nitpicking documentation.
If the Astros group had been Baker’s bullpens, they’d not be outlined by their sustained decade of excellence, however by their determination to launch J.D. Martinez in 2014. And lots of the identical saber-critics who worship on the alter of the overachieving genius of A’s GM Billy Beane, regardless of his abysmal 2-11 playoff collection file, couldn’t lengthen the identical evaluation for Baker’s brilliance.
With that mentioned, let’s tackle Baker’s many good-faith Saber-critics, who virtually all share the identical flaw: they worth PROCESS over efficiency the place HOW you win is extra essential than successful itself.
Think about a research concluding that almost all boxers who maintain their arms low get knocked out extra (which is probably going true) — however then conclude that Muhammad Ali have to be a foul boxer. That’s what this process-based wing of Saber-critics does to Dusty.
A major instance is a widely-cited FiveThirtyEight 2016 research: “Baseball’s Savviest (and Crappiest) Bullpen Managers,” which ranks Dusty because the fourth “crappiest” bullpen supervisor.
The “Savviest” guys on the high of the checklist are Joe Torre (nice) AND Joe Girardi, each tasked with “managing” Mariano Rivera after which some. This research predated 2020 when then-new Phillies supervisor, Girardi and his new 2020 pitching coach, Bryan Worth (sure, that Bryan Worth), led a historic bullpen collapse with a 7.06 ERA — the worst since 1930. Over Girardi’s tenure, his bullpen bombed (No. 29 ERA), and he was fired in June.
How might Girardi’s 2020 bullpen technique probably turn into much less savvy than another supervisor in 90 years?
The issue is the research itself, rooted in “Leverage Index,” which mainly values bullpen MANAGEMENT over bullpen PERFORMANCE. However what if Baker has a greater technique with higher outcomes? Doesn’t matter. “Do it our method.”
That is truly ANTI-Sabermetrics. Earlier than Sabermetrics went mainstream, it wasn’t all the time that method.
When measuring efficiency, like Paine’s cited research this yr on win totals vs. roster expertise, Baker as one of many “best-ever managers” was the norm. One other rigorous consequence research by David Gassko in Hardball Instances Baseball Annual 2008, reviewed managers’ influence on participant efficiency, and ranked Baker because the seventh greatest supervisor ever, and “best supervisor of all time with hitters.” Sure, all time. The GOAT. Can we get an replace?
That adopted one other glowing research in Baseball Prospectus 2003 that examined each participant’s profession on Baker’s 2002 Giants, and located that “all instantly started exceeding all cheap expectations on the plate,” and concluded that “Gamers appear to play higher beneath Baker than beneath your different managers. A lot better.”
Baker’s 2002 Giants had been truly one of many best-managed overachieving groups ever, simply to make the playoffs, beat the 101-win Braves as soon as there, and make it to the World Sequence. And sure, Baker was appropriate to tug Russ Ortiz in Recreation 6.
These “earlier than and after” research don’t measure Dusty’s selections, they measure their outcomes. Similar for this research.
Most managers don’t make gamers higher, however Dusty does. So that you higher rattling measure it.
Not “Leverage Index” or “Pythagorean Theorem,” however efficiency. In the event you ignore efficiency, you draw this conclusion: “Bryan Worth Turns into a Scapegoat”… as a substitute of claiming, “Baker’s Bullpen Collapses Below Worth: Right here’s Why.”
This take at Fangraphs wasn’t by some saber-blowhard however by the well-respected writer of “Large Information Baseball.” If the massive information guys can’t diagnose Baker’s brilliance, what can we anticipate all of the others taking their cues?
“In Cincinnati, they had been throughout me, on a regular basis, it doesn’t matter what. If we received, it wasn’t successful the precise method,” mirrored Baker. “They had been like, ‘I don’t perceive this mode of considering.’ Effectively, I don’t need you to know my mode of considering. That’s how I can beat you.”
Exactly. That’s how Baker’s Astros beat the Phillies.
Regardless of Stanek’s 1.15 ERA, Baker’s boldest transfer was decreasing his function in favor of a red-hot Abreu who rewarded his supervisor’s belief with 11 shutout innings within the postseason. In a loaded bullpen pitching in razor-close video games, Stanek, the wildest one (5.1 BB/9), turned the odd man out. Dusty didn’t need to threat dropping the collection on walks, even when it meant being crucified had the Astros misplaced.
The result was a postseason bullpen ERA of 0.83, the third-lowest in World Sequence workforce historical past. You’re welcome.
Baker’s bravery reveals his tactical genius that helped 24 different relievers on this article carry out higher with him.
It additionally reveals the rigidity and lack of humility and deference of the process-driven wing of his Saber-critics.
As an alternative of honoring managerial genius — they extinguish it.
Dusty Baker is the Muhammad Ali of managers, however his critics maintain telling him to tug his arms again up.
He has by no means wanted a hoop to justify his genius, solely to cease his critics from concealing it.
